Entry 11 Mar 23: Grey Skies

By: nic

The skies over the financial markets seem to be turning grey. I am already writing this entry on Friday since I am traveling to the Netherlands this weekend to pick up some stuff. No blue skies for the next days, then.

On Friday volatility went sky-high again and the VIX went up to around 29. So I quickly added some short premium strategies at the end of the day.

And how is my Beta-weighting Exercise Going?

I can use Tastyworks’ beta-weighting deltas indicator to benchmark individual positions and sum them to understand the directional exposure of my whole portfolio.

I ‘delta-busted’ my portfolio yesterday (Thursday), and here is the result:

The high theta is due to a one day iron condor earnings play I put in on Thursday and that expires on Friday. So I will have to close it before the end of day.

And this is where was last week:

By adjusting my positions and the market fluctuations, the delta-beta was adjusted to neutral. So, for now, I don’t need delta busters or other measures to hedge my risk.

And as a last note again: I finished reading what is considered the bible for options traders: Options as Strategic Investment, 5th ed. by Lawrence G. McMillan.

And I started re-reading another ‘must-read-for-options-traders’ book that is really helping me in learning options trading.

The book is over 400 pages, and I am cherry-picking my way through the book. I am now in Chapter 6 reading about the Greeks,

Grey skies looming over our heads

Table of Contents

Last Week’s Options Trading

In the past few weeks, I have had to manage my positions for the following reasons increasingly:

  1. The still low volatility disallowed me to continue with short premium strategies.
  2. Unexpected bull rallies in what I still consider a bearish market caused some of my positions to go deep ITM, so they had to be closed with a loss.
  3. I was opening bull calls market was going up, and the market then decided to go down again.
  4. And vice versa.
  5. I was still not strictly following my >33% PoP, max 50% loss, and other rules.
  6. I again started backtesting.
  7. Diverting my attention and little time, I have to learn Python for algotrading, which gives me less time to focus on options trading. And in March, I will be doing Pyquant’s’ quant finance and Python course.

So let’s repeat the rules again:

Options Strategy Risk Management Rules​

  1. In high volatility (VIX >20) sell high vol (IVR>30) options to collect premium income while spreading the risk over various expiration dates (staggering dates to avoid expiration density); the higher the volatility, the more of your account you can allocate to short premium strategies.
  2. Sell options at high IVR (>30)  to extract high (overpriced) premiums (‘overpriced’, since predicted volatility is nearly always overestimated, and stocks are less volatile than predicted, so implied volatility implosion or IV reversion to the mean allows for profits to be taken early when stocks fail to be as volatile as predicted). ​
  3. In low volatility (VIX < 20) buy low vol (IVR <30) debit options (you pay the premium) and lower the total allocation; the less volatility, the less money you should allocate to options trading. New rule: only sparingly enter into debit spreads (especially bear puts!), and only do this when more than three signals (technical indicators) confirm this.
  4. Sell and buy options on underlyings that are liquid in the options market (to open and close positions easily and ensure trades can be filled with narrow bid-to-ask spreads for optimal option pricing ​).
  5. Sell and buy options across tickers with broad sector diversity across uncorrelated sectors to spread risk (too much concentration into any given sector runs the risk of stocks auto-correlating in the same direction and potentially jeopardizing all trades within the sector-specific bucket of trades).
  6. As much as possible (given a small account) stick to risk-defined trades (put spreads, call spreads, and iron condors) to mitigate risk and reduce the amount of capital required for any given trade.
  7. Probability of success (P50 in Tastyworks platform)> 70% to ensure a statistical edge
  8. Close the trade and realize profits at >50% premium early in the option lifecycle (21 DTE)
  9. Re-invest the capital made free towards additional trades.
  10. Close-out trades prior to expiration (before strike price gets challenged just before expiration (high volatility and higher loss probability!).
  11. Maximize the number of trades to allow the expected probabilities to play out (trade small, trade often).
  12. Size position/portfolio allocation to manage risk exposure (worst-case scenarios always need to be considered therefore, I conservatively use small allocations to options trades, so only 4% of my portfolio should only be used for any given trade). 
  13. Keep an adequate amount of cash on hand (~40% in my case) to protect your portfolio against any major market downturns (i.e., Covid-19 and Q1 2022, 2023 recession(?). Cash also gives me the possibility of buying stocks/long equity at heavily discounted valuations. ​

Alternatives for Short Premium Strategies

I prefer short premium strategies so high volatility. But volatility is still relatively low. I need to be able to enter trades in all market conditions.

Historically, implied volatility has outperformed realized implied volatility in the markets. For this reason, we always sell implied volatility to give us a statistical edge in the markets. While I often search for a high IV rank at order entry, the market does not always accommodate me.

I, therefore, will start looking at adding these options strategies that benefit from increases in volatility, as well as more directional strategies to use during low-volatility markets to my playbook:

  1. Long bull call and (sparingly) bear put vertical spreads
  2. Ratio spreads
  3. Long put calendars and call calendars
  4. Long diagonal spreads
  5. Long volatility products

In bull(-ish) markets, as the VIX drops, implied volatility tends to be low in equities. Just like I take advantage of reversion to the mean when IV is high, I continue to stay engaged and do the same when it gets to an extreme on the low end. Therefore, in low IV, I will use strategies that benefit from this volatility extreme, expanding to a more normal value.

This doesn’t mean, however, that, in low IV markets, I stop looking for underlyings in the market that have high IV. Premium selling is where the majority of the statistical edge lies.

Opened Positions

Opened: DIA Apr 21 Bear Call 330/335 opened on 10 Mar for $165 credit

Date

10/3/23

Underlying

PoP/P50

DTE

42

IVR

Δ Delta

Θ Theta

Other

10/3/23:

Opened: EEM Apr 21 Iron Condor 33/35/39/41 opened on 10 Mar for $1 debit

Date

10/3/23

Underlying

PoP/P50

DTE

42

IVR

Δ Delta

Θ Theta

Other

10/3/23:

Opened: RIOT Apr 14 Short Put 5 opened on 10 Mar for $60 credit

Date

10/3/23

Underlying

PoP/P50

DTE

42

IVR

Δ Delta

Θ Theta

Other

10/3/23:

Opened: IWM Apr 21 Delta Buster 174/176 bear put 178/180 bear call opened on 10 Mar for $1 debit

Date

10/3/23

Underlying

PoP/P50

DTE

42

IVR

Δ Delta

Θ Theta

Other

10/3/23:

Opened: T Apr 21 Long Call 19 opened on Marc h 10 for $27 debit

Date

10/3/23

Underlying

PoP/P50

DTE

IVR

34

Δ Delta

Θ Theta

Other

10/3/23: just a gamble, based on tech indicators that look positive for going up, and the first time I do a simple, slightly ITM long call.

The T chart 10 Mar at 16:22 UTC+1

Opened: ORCL Apr 21 Iron Condor ‘Earnings Play’ 75/80/95/100 for $131 credit

Date

9/3/23

Underlying

86.69

PoP/P50

62%/–

DTE

43

IVR

45.4

Δ Delta

—

Θ Theta

–

Other

9 Mar 23: This is the second play of two to see the difference n iron condor earnings play placed just before earnings at a standard monthly expiry date around 45 DTE after earnings. According to what I know today, also a longer-term should profit from the ‘volatility crush’.

Opened and closed: ORCL Mar 10 Iron Condor ‘Earnings Play’ 80/83/90/93 for $100 credit and closed the next day on Mar 10 for a $50 debit

Date

10/3/23

Underlying

83.73

PoP/P50

60%/–

DTE

43

IVR

53.9

Δ Delta

—

Θ Theta

—

Other

IVR didn’t crush (yet) but move down cause P/L to go up fast.

Date

9/3/23

Underlying

86.69

PoP/P50

62%/–

DTE

43

IVR

45.4

Δ Delta

26.924

Θ Theta

26.924

Other

Very high theta!

10 Mar 23: A successful earnings play that closed immediately at the opening after reaching the 50% profit target I had set.

9 Mar 23: This is one play of two to see the difference of an iron condor earnings play placed just before earnings at a weekly expiry date immediately after earnings. Of course, I am hoping for ‘volatility crush’.

A volatility crush is the term used to describe the result of implied volatility exploding once the market opens higher or lower than where it closed the previous day.

Nasdaq.com

Opened: XLF Apr 21 ‘Delta Buster’ consisting of bear put 34/33 ($42 debit) bear call 34/35 ($44 credit) for $2 credit and the bear put closed on 10 Mar for $52 credit

Date

9/3/23

Underlying

33.68

PoP/P50

56%/–

DTE

43

IVR

31.1

Δ Delta

-29.57

Θ Theta

0.226

Other

Deltas: -0.39/-0.53/0.47/0.32

10 Mar 23: The Bear Put closed for $52 credit, so $54 profit until now. The remaining bear call is now at $8 in the green. With all the other adjustments and closures, the delta beta is still nice and low at 6.

9 Mar 23: To reduce my positive delta exposure and seeing the VIX rapidly going up, I chose an already down trending underlying (XLF) to do a ‘delta buster‘

Opened: TLT Apr 21 94/97/107/110 Iron Condor Opened on March 9 for $105 credit

Date

9/3/23

Underlying

101.58

PoP/P50

68%

DTE

44

IVR

31.1

Δ Delta

-0.15

Θ Theta

1.393

Other

Deltas: -0.15/-0.25/0.24/0.13

9 Mar 23: one of the few underlyings with an IVR above 30 and quite rangebound between 97 and 107. So I placed an iron condor.

Running and Closed Positions

This week I am only updating adjusted and closed positions (since I am away from home in the weekend when I normally update my entries).

Closed: SPY Mar 31 371/374/421/424 Iron Condor Opened on Feb 21 for $101 credit and closed on Mar 6 for $76 debit

Date

04/3/23

Underlying

404.11

PoP/P50

74%

DTE

21

IVR

2.7

Δ Delta

-2.0

Θ Theta

2.252

Other

Deltas: -0.07/0.09/-0.18/0.13

Date

21/2/23

Underlying

400.01

PoP/P50

60%/76%

DTE

38

IVR

26.8

Δ Delta

-1.67

Θ Theta

1.792

Other

So below required IVR 30

Deltas: -0.11/0.16/-0.18/0.14

9 Mar 23: closed the SPY for a 25% profit one day before 21 DTE

5 Mar 23: $33 in the green.

25 Feb 23: $18 in the green. I backtested this set-up after the event. I normally try to look around 200 trades examined. For Spy this goies back two years. Win rate is not so high (58%). But Median profit per day is quite high! See alos the forward startegy results. It lookst good if price remains the same.

Forward strategy
Probability of making profit

Closed: IWM Mar 31 168/172/201/205 Opened on Feb 21 for $100 credit and closed on Mar 6 for $50 debit

Date

04/3/23

Underlying

191.48

PoP/P50

77%%

DTE

27

IVR

5.5

Δ Delta

16.86

Θ Theta

0.636

Other

Deltas: 0.00/0.07/0.00/0.10

Date

21/2/23

Underlying

187.34

PoP/P50

67%/81%

DTE

38

IVR

27.8

Δ Delta

-2.35

Θ Theta

2.222

Other

So a little below required IVR 30

Deltas: -0.11/-0.16/0.16/0.10

9 Mar 23: closed the IWM for a 50% profit one day before 21 DTE

4 Mar 23: $5 negative

25 Feb 23: $14 in the green

Closed: QQQ Mar 31 266/269/315/318 Opened on Feb 21 for $102 credit and closed on Mar 10 for a $59 credit

Date

04/2323

Underlying

299.68

PoP/P50

73%

DTE

27

IVR

2.5

Δ Delta

-3.38

Θ Theta

-0.03

Other

Deltas: -0.06/0.08/-0.22/0.17

Date

21/2/23

Underlying

294.52

PoP/P50

62%/72%

DTE

38

IVR

29

Δ Delta

-1.556

Θ Theta

1.827

Other

So a little below required IVR 30

Deltas: -0/15/-0.17/0.21/0.17

10 Mar 23: sticking to my exit rules (already one week late past 21 DTE) I closed this one for an over 40% profit ($43)

4 Mar 23: $23 positive

25 Feb 23: $19 in the green

Closed: AMD Mar 24 80/75 Bear Put Opened on Feb 17 for $245 debit and rolled the 75 strike up to (80/)78 for a $82 credit and closed on Mar 8 for a $48 credit

Date

04/3/23

Underlying

81.52

PoP

<1%

DTE

21

IVR

6.5

Δ Delta

-8.61

Θ Theta

-0.09

Other

Date

25/2/23

Underlying

78.09

PoP

48%

DTE

28

IVR

13.8

Δ Delta

14.20

Θ Theta

-0.19

Other

Date

18/2/23

Underlying

78.50

PoP

40%

DTE

34

IVR

13.4

Δ Delta

-/-

Θ Theta

-/-

Other

8 Mar 23: Both my AMD positions have not been a success. I opened this because after opening the bull call AMD went down. I made a mistake, since I should have opened the bear put long strike at the same long strike of the bull call (according to the bull call adjustment theory). So now I have taken a $115 (-47%) loss.

4 Mar 23: Rolled the short strike for a credit, but this will not really help, except for giving Tastytrade some commission. Struggling to mitigate potential losses in this play. DTE now 21 PoP below 1%, AMD trend is up from the beginning, P/L Open at 54%, so what is stopping me to close this? Nothing, so this is what I should do on Monday. $89 in the red.

25 Feb 23: $6 in the red

18 Feb 23: $16 in the red. I opened this one since my bull call was going wrong.

Let’s also retro-backtest this one.

Doesn’t look to have been a good idea.

Closed: AMD Mar 24 83/87 Bull Call Opened on Feb 7 for $200 debit and rolled the 87 strike to 85 for a $60 on 3 Mar, closed on Mar 9 for another $110 credit

Date

04/3/23

Underlying

81.52

PoP

<1%

DTE

21

IVR

6.5

Δ Delta

8.72

Θ Theta

0.09

Other

Date

25/2/23

Underlying

78.09

PoP

27%

DTE

27

IVR

13.8

Δ Delta

14.2

Θ Theta

0.14

Other

Date

11/2/23

Underlying

81.48

PoP

39%

DTE

41

IVR

16.8

Δ Delta

11.43

Θ Theta

-0.495

Other

9 Mar 23: Finally closed the position, leaving me with a $30 loss

4 Mar 23: The underlying is back at the price at opening of this position. IVR has more than halved. Rolled the short strike for a credit, but this will not really help, except for giving Tastytrade some commission. All doesn’t really help this play. Since the trend is up the loss may be further decreased. But I am getting closer to expiry (21 DTE). So on Monday it is decision time also for this one. $58 in the red.

25 Feb 23: Tumbled down and should be closed. $97 in the red.

18 Feb 23: No update

11 Feb 23: PoP is getting very low: 39%. And P/L Open % is now 20%.

7 Feb 23: opened an AMD bull call following my entry rules.

Rolled: RIOT Mar 31 5.5 Short Put Opened on Feb 16 for $49 credit and rolled up and out on Mar 6 to Apr 21 6 for $40 credit

Date

04/3/23

Underlying

6.34

PoP

77%

DTE

27

IVR

15.3

Δ Delta

26.72

Θ Theta

1.045

Other

IVR down again! Earnings 15 March!

Date

15/2/23

Underlying

5.87

PoP

64%

DTE

34

IVR

22.7

Δ Delta

36.62

Θ Theta

1.105

Other

IVR halved! Earnings 15 March!

Date

18/2/23

Underlying

6.59

PoP

71%

DTE

41

IVR

41

Δ Delta

26.46

Θ Theta

1.048

Other

6 Mar 2023: rolled RIOT up and out since it was 21 DTE, and I could make some profit.

4 Mar 23: IVR going down for a short put is good. Price going up as well. $15 profit now. I may close this position and look at a calendar spread earnings play on Monday.

25 Feb 23: moving up and down with BTC, now down again and $15 in the red

18 Feb 23: $6 in the red

Rolled: TSLA Mar 31 160/165/255/260 Iron Condor Opened on Feb 17 for $150 credit and rolled the 255/260 leg down to 210/215 and out to 21 Apr on Mar 9 for a $71 credit and rolled the 160/165bput leg out to Apr 21 for $35 credit

Date

09/3/23

Underlying

173.83

PoP

90%

DTE

22/43

IVR

17.9

Δ Delta

-3.13

Θ Theta

0.822

Other

Underlying considerably down

Date

25/2/23

Underlying

196.88

PoP

68%

DTE

34

IVR

30.2

Δ Delta

1.54

Θ Theta

0.02

Other

IVR also down here (-20%)

Date

18/2/23

Underlying

208.31

PoP

63%

DTE

41

IVR

38.6

Δ Delta

0.05

Θ Theta

2.348

Other

9 Mar 23: The markets were going down, and also Tesla started to dive, moreover, expiry was within 21 days so I decided to roll the call leg. After rolling, I saw that PoP is at 90%; this means I could have taken on more risk by even rolling further down. P50, though is just above 50%, so maybe not? The put leg is still at Mar 31 160/165 and also needs attention.

4 Mar 23: quickly becoming some of my best of recent plays. $72 in the green at nearly 50% P/L Open.

25 Feb 23: $26 in the green

18 Feb 23: $10 in the green

Closed: SHOP Mar 31 42/48 Bull Call Opened on Feb 16 for $300 debit and closed on 9 Mar for $220 credit

Date

04/3/23

Underlying

43.40

PoP

40%

DTE

27

IVR

-3.2

Δ Delta

34.40

Θ Theta

-0.748

Other

Date

25/2/23

Underlying

40.74

PoP

30%

DTE

34

IVR

4.7

Δ Delta

25.93

Θ Theta

0.26

Other

Date

18/2/23

Underlying

43.61

PoP

43%

DTE

41

IVR

3.8

Δ Delta

26.37

Θ Theta

-0.431

Other

9 Mar 23: Closed this positions since it was within 21 DTE

4 Mar 23: This bullish call play did recover somewhat and we’re back at the underlying price. But still $58 in the red (-20% P/L Open).

25 Feb 23: $68 in the red, and PoP in danger zone (<33%)

Closed: GLD Apr 21 173/170 Bear Put Opened on Feb 17 for $145 debit and closed on Mar 8 for $190 credit.

9 Mar 23: Actually I had completely forgotten to add this one some weeks ago to my journal and found out this week because I closed it. I have to improve my quality system! Anyway a small win here of $45 (30%).

Closed: TSLA Mar 24 150/155/230/235 Iron Condor Opened on Feb 10 for $170 credit and closed on Mar 7 for $60 debit

Date

04/3/23

Underlying

197.79

PoP

56%

DTE

20

IVR

16.7

Δ Delta

-1.91

Θ Theta

3.64

Other

Date

15/2/23

Underlying

196.8

PoP

68%

DTE

27

IVR

37.5

Δ Delta

-0.74

Θ Theta

-0.01

Other

Date

18/2/23

Underlying

208.31

PoP

59%

DTE

34

IVR

37.5

Δ Delta

-2.13

Θ Theta

2.288

Other

Date

11/2/23

Underlying

196.89

PoP

57%

DTE

41

IVR

44

Δ Delta

-0.37

Θ Theta

2.218

Other

7 Mar 23: Tesla was nice to me, and I could close this position for a nice 65% profit ($110)

4 Mar 23: $95 in the green (56% P/L Open so near 60% profit exit target)

25 Feb 23: $44 in the green

18 Feb 23: $ 11 in the red

10 Feb 23: Finally again a short premium play today. TESLA had higher volatility and I was able to construct an iron condor for a nice credit.

Closed: SLV Mar 24 21.5/19.5 Bull Call Opened on Feb 8 for $103 debit and sold the 21.5 strike for $2 debit on Mar 8 and the 19.5 strike for $26 credit

Date

04/3/23

Underlying

19.54

PoP

21%

DTE

21

IVR

-2.8

Δ Delta

44.79

Θ Theta

-0.683

Other

Date

25/2/23

Underlying

19.09

PoP

17%

DTE

27

IVR

1.6

Δ Delta

32.63

Θ Theta

-0.572

Other

Date

18/2/23

Underlying

20.01

PoP

38%

DTE

34

IVR

2.5

Δ Delta

63.07

Θ Theta

-0.935

Other

Date

11/2/23

Underlying

20.24

PoP

44%

DTE

41

IVR

7

Δ Delta

66.02

Θ Theta

-0.089

Other

10 Mar 23: Closed this position for what in the end is a $79 loss.

8 Mar 23: I sold the short since it was coming close to 21 DTE to make some profit on one leg since the other leg was close to 100% loss. I can let it go and hope that before 24 Mar it recovers somewhat (quod non of course). Again completely against my exit rules.

4 Mar 23: SLV went up again but the underlying is still below the opening price. Given DTE, and P/L Open% below -50%, should be closed. Now at -$55 loss.

25 Feb 23: Going further down and against the position. PoP far below 33% (exit rule), P/L Open% now minus 66% so must be closed (I don’t see adjustment opportunities). This was just a bad bet on SLV staying strong.

In trading on Friday, shares of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (Symbol: SLV) crossed below their 200 day moving average of $19.33, changing hands as low as $19.15 per share.

18 Feb 23: $25 in the red

8-11 Feb 23: Opened another SLV position to capture upward price. Not sure anymore why ( I am writing this three days later), so note to myself: I need to record my thoughts immediately and capture those in this journal.

Closed: Opened on 29 Dec: QQQ Iron Condor Feb 17 235/240/294/299 for $138 credit and rolled there 235/240 puts on Jan 24 to 270/275 put wing for a $77 credit and on Jan 27 rolled the 294/299 call wing to Mar 17 for $20 credit and closed this call wing on 30 Jan for a $240 debit, moved the put wing out on 1 Feb to Mar 17 for $30 credit and up to $286/291 on 2 Feb for $45 credit and rolled it out to Apr 21 on 2 Mar for a small $15 credit and closed on 9 Mar for $175 debit

9 Mar 23: Closed for overall $90 loss

4 Mar 23: One of the oldest positions and a failed play, but reduced last bu hald to $53 in the red after rolling the remaining 286/291 bull put out to 21 Apr. Still needs to be closed.

25 Feb 23: 53% PoP $115 in the red; a failed play which I need to close.

18 Feb 23: $28 in the red.

3 Feb 23: The Qs also went up again, and given the fact that I really need to start trading more disciplined and actually apply my exit rules, and I was far above the 50% loss target I have set myself, I closed the ITM call wing; by rolling the put wing I can win some money back. What is left from this iron condor play is a Mar 17 bull put 286/291 at 72% PoP, $14 in the red, and put strikes at -21/27 delta.

27 Jan 23: rolled the challenged call wing to March 17 since I still believe this is a bubble and the market will come down very soon. Also here PoP is close to my 35% threshold, and I am $99 in the red.

24 Jan 23: same story here as with iron condors: rallies up threatening call wings, so rolling up unchallenged put legs to capture credit.

21 Jan 23: 73% PoP, $7 in the green, and the highest leg is the short call at -28.37 delta. 21 DTE action date (manage/close) next week.

14 Jan 23: 16 days since opening and P/L Open down to $7, PoP is now at 71%, and the highest leg is the short call at -0.26 delta.

7 Jan 23: 10 days since opening and P/L Open at $28, PoP is now down to 75%, and the highest leg is the short call at -0.15 delta.

31 Dec 22: I added a Feb 17 iron condor and closed all my other positions (21 DTE rule). As with all my iron condors a high volatility play. My general rules for iron condors are that the deltas of the individual legs should be around 20, IVR above 30, and ideally IV (implied volatility) higher than average HV (historical volatility). I do look at some technical indicators mainly to determine where to position the short strikes. So if I see an upward trend, I will move the put legs up towards the price of the underlying, and I will do the same with the call legs at the same time giving them more ‘cushion.’

Overall condor delta today at 1. Deltas of the legs today are still at or around 16. PoP at 69%.

Note: the Nasdaq-100 is the worst-hit U.S. stock index for 2022, down over 34% on the year.
QQQ also has the highest current implied volatility rank of the 4 index ETFs, around 35%.

QQQ

The investment seeks investment results that generally correspond to the price and yield performance of the index. To maintain the correspondence between the composition and weights of the securities in the trust (the “securities”) and the stocks in the Nasdaq-100 Index ® or NDX, which is heavy with technology stocks (50%) and is also concentrated with the top 15 stocks making up 60% of the ETF, the adviser adjusts the securities from time to time to conform to periodic changes in the identity and/or relative weights of index securities. The composition and weighting of the securities portion of a portfolio deposit are also adjusted to conform to changes in the index.

QQQ has US$149bn in assets and managed by Invesco.

QQQ stock breakdown

Closed: Opened on 19 Dec: XLE Iron Condor Feb 17 73/75/96/98 for a $59 credit and rolled the 73/75 puts to 84/86 on Jan 24 for a $34 credit and rolled out and widened the 96/98 call wing to 95/100 Mar 17 for $107 credit and rolled and widened the 84/86 put wing to 78/83 for a $32 credit, closed the 95/100 for a $4 debit and rolled the 78/83 puts out to Mar 31 for $33 credit and closed on 27 Feb for $130 debit

4 Mar 23: Closed the 78/83 for $130 debit what in the end gave me a $131 overall profit. Very well adjusted played over 61 (!) days and I need to revisit this one once in a while.

25 Feb 23: $16 in the green

18 Feb 23: $89 in the green (at 40% profit) with 66% PoP

4 Feb 23: As long as I can get extra credits along the way to expiration I will do so. The Mar 17 iron condor 78/83/95/100 now shows a 61% PoP and is $66 in the green with now the short put at 0.34 delta since XLE went down in price to 85.96.

24 Jan 23: same story here as with iron condors: rallies up threatening call wings, so rolling up unchallenged put legs to capture credit.

21 Jan 23: 33 days since opening and $21 in the green now with PoP at 79%. The short call is still -0.22 delta.

14 Jan 23: 27 days since opening and $16 in the green now and PoP at 78% now, short call leg highest at -0.22 delta.

7 Jan 23: 20 days since opening and $12 in the green now and PoP at 74% now, short call leg highest at -0.20 delta.

31 Dec 22: $1 in the green and PoP at 68% now and short call leg highest at 23 delta

24 Dec 22: XLE didn’t move much since opening and is now $1 in the red

19 Dec 22: XLE is seeing higher volatility and is slightly bullish, backtested positive.

End-of-Week Active Positions Overview

Somewhat reduced portfolio this week

Financials

Cash Balance 11 March 2023

P/L YTD went up to @231 again. Volatility and short premium are my friends!

I am more and more trading optimally, making full use of my cash, optimizing my positions etc . but I am still making mistakes in choosing the right directions and the right options strategies.

The points I have to look at are:

  • In general, my positions are placed on the safe side with low deltas, there is less risk and low profit. I am already increasing risk by widening spreads and picking higher deltas.
  • For a better-balanced portfolio allocation (based on VIX), I am adding non-short premium and passive income strategies to optimize my portfolio.
  • Except for a small short put undefined risk play in RIOT, I have been only doing a limited number of defined risk strategies which are lower risk but also less profitable: I may need to start looking at adding other defined risk strategies, and once in a while short straddles and strangles based on low prices underlyings. But my account is, at this stage, really too small for this.
  • I now select positions with higher premiums compared to the commissions and fees I have to pay and the target profit I have set as a rule (50%).
  • I am now also monitoring the beat-weighted delta of my positions and total portfolio; in periods like this, I need to manage it in such a way that it remains close to 0. I am far away from achieving this.
  • BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY: I SHALL ABIDE BY MY ENTRY, ADJUSTMENT, AND EXIT RULES !

Find out more about the platform I love to use for my options trading:

If you like it as much as I do and want to open an account, click here:

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Market Sentiment 4 March 2023

  • Below is the sentiment of last week. I will update it again next week when I return from my trip to the Netherlands.

I mostly use eOption’s Closing Bell emails, StockTwits, BarChart, and Seeking Alpha I receive daily as a source.

1. Geopolitical Events and Economic Trends

During the week, I capture the most important news. Every weekend before the new trading week, I review the current markets, the general geopolitical events, and economic trends determining the sentiment in the world of options trading.

  • The war between Russia and Ukraine is still raging on.
  • China apparently weighing in on Ukraine? (Source: Seeking Alpha)

2. VIX Index

  • The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) is down to 18.5 (last week at 21.67) so lull territory.
  • The VIX Index measures the level of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index over the next 30 days that is implied in the bid/ask quotations of SPX options. Thus, the VIX Index is a forward-looking measure, in contrast to realized (or actual) volatility, which measures the variability of historical (or known) prices.
  • A VIX below 15% is very low volatility. A 15% or below VIX is assumed to be a market at rest. Since the intrinsic nature of the Stock Market is to move up, a VIX close to 15% or lower will tell us that the broader market is likely to head higher. 
  • Up to 19% VIX means the market is in ‘lull’ mode. 19% is seen as the ‘steady state’ VIX. This arena is inadequate for short premium plays, which require high volatility. This is where long calls, puts, and debit spreads may be set up. Only when VIX gets closer to 30%, selling options become viable.
  • At 20% or higher means medium volatility.
  • A VIX of 30% or higher means high volatility. When selling options, you want to sell out of stocks when the VIX is near 30. This is where credit spreads, short strangles, straddles, short iron condors, etc., can be played.
  • Above a VIX of 40%, this is still the case, but given the extreme volatility, you should be very careful.

VIX for position sizing

So my maximum portfolio capital allocation for short premium strategies should remain at 35% of net liq.

See also on this subject this Tastytrade video.

VIX

< 15

15-19

20-29

30-40

>40

Volatility

Lowest volatility, all comfortable

Market in ‘lull’ mode

Volatility high

Volatility very high

Volatility and fear levels highest

Maximum portfolio capital allocation

25%

30%

35%

40%

50%

Volatility and the VIX are significant in how I size positions and portfolio allocation. Since my focus is on short premium trading, I must balance exposure to substantial losses and reaching sufficient occurrences.

In 2022 the VVIX Index (VIX Volatility Index) has also traded within a fairly reasonable range (roughly between 83 and 150). The long-term average is 86, and the VVIX is mean-reverting.

The VVIX is nicknamed the “VIX of VIX” because it is calculated using the implied volatility of ATM and OTM options in the VIX itself, using the same calculation method as VIX. The index measures the “volatility of volatility, or the “vol of vol.”

Today, the VVIX went down to 75.93 .

The VVIX/VIX Ratio

See more in this Tastyworks video.

3. Oil and Gas

The following sectors I look at – to understand the market sentiment – are, due to their massive impact on the global economy, metal & mining.

  • Oil prices finish the day higher for a 4th straight day (up 4.4% in week), erasing earlier losses as WTI gained $1.52 or 1.94% to settle at $79.68 per barrel.

4. Gold, Silver, and Copper (Metals & Mining)

To understand the market sentiment, I look at the following sectors: precious metals and mining due to their massive impact on the global economy.

  •  Gold prices rose $14.10, or 0.77% to settle at $1,854.60 an ounce, the first weekly jump after four consecutive weeks of decline. 

5. USD and Other Currencies

The DXY, the symbol for the US dollar index, tracks the price of the US dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies that have a significant trading relationship with the US and are also hard floating currencies. The index will rise if the dollar strengthens against these currencies and will fall if the dollar weakens against these currencies.

  • The U.S. dollar also dipped, with the dollar index (DXY) falling -0.35% back below the 105 level.

6. Bitcoin AND crypto

  • Bitcoin prices fell over 4% to 2-week lows around $22,300 from $ 23,023 last week!

7. Yield Curves

  • Treasury yields on the long end of the curve ended near the lows of the session, with the 10-yr down after hitting highest levels since November at 4.09% yesterday.  

Understanding yield curves also adds to better reading the market sentiment.

“A yield curve is a line that plots bonds’ yields (interest rates) having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. The yield curve’s slope gives an idea of future interest rate changes and economic activity.

There are three main yield curve shapes: regular (upward-sloping curve), inverted (downward-sloping curve), and flat. Upward sloping (standard yield curves) is where longer-term bonds have higher yields than short-term ones. 

Standard curves point to economic expansion, and downward-sloping (inverted) curves point to economic recession.

Yield curve rates are published on the Treasury’s website each trading day.”

Source: Investopedia

i. The 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Yield Curve

The yield curve (T10Y3M) compares the 10-year with the 3-month U.S. Treasury bond yield. It gives insight into bank profitability, which is correlated with economic activity. Historically, the yield curve has been a reliable predictor of economic recessions.

An inverted yield curve has been a good indicator of an economic slowdown ahead. A 10-year-3-month treasury spread approaching 0 signifies a “flattening” yield curve. Furthermore, a negative 10-year-3-month spread has historically been viewed as a precursor or predictor of a recessionary period.

  • For some time now, the indicator has been predicting a recession.

ii. The 2-Year/10-Year Yield Curve

  • The 2s10s curve is still at its deepest level of inversion in forty years. For only the fourth time on record and for the first time since 2009, bearish sentiment has fallen double digits in back-to-back weeks
  • The inversion of the yield curve revisited its widest point since 1981 on Thursday morning, as the spread between the U.S 10 Year Treasury yield (US10Y) and the U.S. 2 Year Treasury yield (US2Y) reached a gap of more than 80 basis points.
  • The separation between the two instruments touched -85 basis points. This came as the 10Y dipped 5 basis points to 3.58% and the 2Y slid 2 basis points to 4.43%.

“An inverted yield curve can be an important economic indicator and a likely precursor to a recession. 

When the curve inverts, the longer-dated bond (I am using the 10-year) will offer a lower annual yield than a short-dated bond (I am using the 2-year). This means that investors have bid up the prices on longer-dated bonds to the point where they yield less than short-dated bonds.

An inverted yield curve results from investor concerns about the economy and the stock market. History shows that investors tend to be right about economic weakness on the horizon when the yield curve is inverted. Since WWII, every recession has been preceded by a yield curve inversion.

Recessions don’t start immediately after the yield curve inverts, however. The inversion tends to precede the recession by 6 to 18 months.”

Source: SeekingAlpha

8. Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPI are from the first commercial transaction for many products and some services.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

  • See chart above. 

9. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The measure that is most often used to measure inflation in terms of consumers is the consumer price index (CPI). Tens of thousands of items in several categories are tracked. The basket of products or services is considered each month, and economists and statisticians look for trends. If the CPI rises, prices could trend higher, with inflation on the rise.

  • December monthly CPI was revised from -.1% to +.1%. Bureau of Labor Statistics released benchmark revisions. Revisions include seasonal adjustment factors. Ex food and energy was up +.4% vs +.3%.

10. Consumer Sentiment Index

A low CSI index reflects the general (dis-)satisfaction with managing U.S. economic policies. A high satisfaction rating suggests approval of the current policy management and implies market stability. 

Source: Surveys of Consumers (umich.edu).

  • Meanwhile, February’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose 3.2% to its highest level in about a year. Driving that was a reduction in fuel prices, which helped improve consumers’ outlook on inflation and the economy
  • Consumer sentiment still remains historically low, since concerns over the economy remain, with many consumers stepping up their savings to prepare for a potential recession.
  • Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged at 1.5 index points above January. Recent developments in the economy, both positive and negative, have led to mixed attitudes among consumers with little net change in February.
  • After three consecutive months of increases, sentiment is now 6% above a year ago but still 14% below two years ago, prior to the current inflationary episode.
  • Overall, high prices continue to weigh on consumers despite the recent moderation in inflation, and sentiment remains more than 22% below its historical average since 1978.
  • Combined with concerns over rising unemployment on the horizon, consumers are poised to exercise greater caution with their spending in the months ahead.
  • Source: Survey of Consumers University of Michigan

11. Put/Call Ratio

  • A Put/call Ratio of below .5 could mean the market is very bullish. Maybe too bullish. It could be an excellent time to sell stocks high.
  • Between 1.0 and 2.0, the Put/call Ratio indicates a bearish market.
  • A Put/call Ratio above 2.0 could mean it is very bearish. It could be an excellent time to consider buying low.
  • Moving sideways if the Put/call Ratio oscillates between 0.5 and 1.0.
  • The put/call ratio went at 0.919, which indicates sideways movement.

Warning: previous research conducted by tastytrade revealed that the Put/Call Ratio is not a reliable trading indicator. Readers can check out this installment to review that research in greater detail this installment.

12. NASDAQ, DJI, SPX, Russel 2000 Indices, and Main Market Sectors

In general, I look at the leading indices DJIA, SPX, and Russell 2000 (IWM) and the level of volatility or ‘market thrashing’ (excessive volatility with significant rising then near proportionate falling in markets’ values within a trading period): above 1% in any or all of them might indicate indecision in the market.

NASDAQ, DJIA, SPX, IWM

  • For the week, the Dow Jones dropped 3% for its fourth straight losing week, the S&P 500 shed 2.7% in its worst week since early December, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq sank 3.3%.

Major Stock Market Sectors

I also follow the major market sectors in Barchart.

  • Every sector closed green. Communications services (+2.15%) led, and consumer staples (+0.04%) lagged
  • S&P 500: up 1.61% from –1.05% last week
25 February 2023 Barchart
4 March 2023 Barchart

Summary Market Sentiment

Bull market

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Bear market/crash

1. Geopolitical events and economic trends

Positive trends, stable supply chains

Minor market issues, minor supply chain issues

National events, market issues, bad economic data, mini-corrections

Negative indicators, international events, serious market issues, broader market correction (-10%)

The total collapse of the global market, deep recession

2. VIX (VIX)

<15

Lowest volatility, all comfortable

15-19

Market in ‘lull’ mode

20-29

Volatility high (down from above 30)

30-39

Volatility very high

>40

Volatility and fear levels highest

3. Oil & Gas (XOP)

Oil & gas

Minor market issues, minor supply chain issues

National events, market issues

International supply chain interruptions, high oil & gas prices

International conflicts involving US, Russia or China, and other main producing countries

4. Gold, Silver & Copper (GLD & SLV & Copper)

Gold, silver, and Copper stable

Minor market issues, minor supply chain issues

National events, market issues

International supply chain interruptions

International conflicts involving US, Russia or China, and other main producing countries

5. US Dollar Currency Index (DXY)

Very weak dollar versus other currencies

Weak dollar

Neither weak/nor strong dollar

Strong dollar

Very strong dollar

6. Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin rising

Bitcoin rising at a slow rate

Bitcoin “thrashing” at the same level

Crypto crashes, market corrections

Bitcoin or other cryptos or companies collapse

7. US Yield Curve (T10Y3M and US10Y vs US02Y)

Considerably steep curve

Steep curve

Average but still positive curve

Flattening, inverting, and approaching zero

Inverted curve and negative

8. Producer Price Index (PPI)

Lowest price level

Price level higher than normal

Price levels rising fast

The price level is very high

Highest price level

9. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Lowest price level

Price level higher than normal

Price levels rising fast

The price level is very high

Highest price level

10. Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)

High consumer confidence

Consumer confidence is less high

Consumer confidence going down from very high or up from very low

Low consumer confidence

No consumer confidence

11. S&P 500 Put/call ratio (PCR)

Well below 0.5 (very bullish)

Close to 0.5 (bullish)

Between 0.5 and 1.0 (neutral)

Between 1.0 and 2.0 (bearish)

Above 2.0 (severely bearish)

12. Dow Jones (DJI)

S&P 500 (SPX)

Russel 2000 (RUT)

Major Market Sectors (XLE, XLF, etc)

Strong bull market
No real changes in an upward trend

Bullish market
Minor changes in an upward trend

Moving to neutral bullish/bearish market

Increased (positive/negative) changes and “thrashing”

Bearish market (with bear rallies)

In general, going down, many negative changes

Bear market

A deep recession or the market is collapsing, or already did so

Trading style

No restrictions on trading (except for VIX rules)

Closer watch and reduce trades

More caution needed and reduce trades further

Extreme caution and reduce trades even further

Look to close any open positions and no new trades

This Week’s Economic Calendar

  • The jobs report.
  • Investors will also be paying close attention to Treasury yields, especially the 10-year Treasury note after its flirtation with the 4% level.
  • On the political front, the White House is expected to release a proposed budget on March 9. 

Earnings and Dividend Calendar

In general, I tend to avoid earnings or dividends (and other major events within 30 days of opening a position). Earnings are somewhat out again (start next month).

Portfolio allocation

See above: I need to start working on a balance between defined and undefined risk strategies to be added to my playbook.

This Week’s Guidelines

Positions at Beginning Of the Coming Week

I now have 12 positions which is below the average I need to have running to maximize my portfolio allocation at 2-3% position sizes and 50% overall allocations.

I am now at below 30% buying power usage of which most is for short premium strategies. I have set the maximum allocation at 50%, so I still have room for new positions.

I can exceptionally go up to 70% but I want to have at least a minimum of 30% in cash at all times, so can use 20% more in my account for emergencies or opportunities (so now 35% short premium and 15% debit/long strategies and 20% for emergencies).

Goals and Schedule for this week

Sunday: set up options strategy ideas and perform backtesting; select at least two options strategy ideas.

Until Tuesday: open one more vertical spread or iron condor and a long position.

Rest of the week: start looking at strategies involving buying bills or bonds for the remaining 10% of the 50%.

For short premium strategies, I need high IVR underlyings and underlyings trading in ranges with apparent resistance and support areas.

Underlyings Selected for Trading This Week

This is my selection for this week. I am still avoiding the earnings as much as possible, looking for high IVRs.

And during the week I will monitor stocks coming out of earnings.

For this week, I will continue applying my underlying selection rules and focus on high volatility (IVR >40) and higher premium underlyings that have no significant events (like earnings < 30 days) coming up.

My expectation (or rather: hope) is that this week’s volatility will increase.

Options Buying Power and Portfolio Allocation This Week

Based on my current buying power and portfolio allocation rules, I determine whether I can open new positions to maximize such portfolio allocation.

I use VIX to determine the allocation percentage for short premium strategies. Since I until now only opened short strategies, this is still applicable to my whole portfolio.

However, with VIX going down to 20, I should be looking at using 5% of my total NetLiq for other strategies.

Allocation based on VIX (for short premium strategies)

VIX

< 15

15-19

20-29

30-40

>40

Volatility

Lowest volatility, all comfortable

Market in ‘lull’ mode

Volatility high

Volatility very high

Volatility and fear levels highest

Maximum portfolio capital allocation

25%

30%

35%

40%

50%

In allocating portfolio capital, I need to use Buying Power (NetLiq)

Cash Balance

$10,37.60
(was $9,788.20 )

Buying Power/Net Liq

$10,644.60
(was $10,327.20 )

Max Portfolio Capital Allocation Short Premium (Cash Available for Trading)

30%

$3,193,38

Max Portfolio Capital Allocation Other (low risk, long positions)

20%

$2,128,92

Average Max Position Allocation (BP)

3%

$319,33

I now am max allocated for short premium, so can add new debit position (s).

Portfolio allocation undefined vs defined risk

All my plays are ‘defined risk.’ I need to add undefined risk positions at a later stage. I will explain why in my blog post on constructing trades.

Since my average maximum position allocation is up to 3% and close to $310, I need to be looking for higher priced underlyings or increasing the number of contracts per position.

This Week’s Rules

I will start a post this week with my entry, adjustment, and exit rules per the options strategy. I will describe how I set up a playbook with all the strategies I want to deploy.

Conclusion

To continue to work on: weekly reminder: I still need to get more mechanical and disciplined in entering and adjusting the positions and remembering why I (or the platform) close positions.

The same for exiting.

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